These terms describe market direction, price forecasting, forecast confidence, and stock behavior.
Bear / Bearish
A bear market or bearish outlook means prices are generally falling or expected to fall. In Amaas, a bearish signal does not automatically mean a company is poor quality; it may mean the short-term trend, regime, or confidence layer is unfavorable.
Market direction
Bull / Bullish
A bull market or bullish outlook means prices are generally rising or expected to rise. In Amaas, bullish signals are most useful when they align with strong valuation, profitability, forecast confidence, and investment score.
Market direction
GBM
GBM stands for Geometric Brownian Motion. It is a mathematical model used to estimate a range of possible future stock prices based on historical price movement, average return, and volatility.
Forecast model
Markov
A Markov model studies how a stock or market moves from one state to another, such as bullish, neutral, or bearish. Amaas uses Markov-style information as a confidence and regime-persistence signal rather than as the only basis for ranking a company.
Regime model
Forecast Confidence
Forecast Confidence estimates how much trust the model places in the projected outcome. It can be influenced by Markov persistence, volatility, market regime, data completeness, and whether multiple signals point in the same direction.
Confidence layer
Investment Score
Investment Score is the primary company-attractiveness score in Amaas. It combines ranked factors such as GBM upside, valuation, profitability, liquidity, solvency, option value, sentiment, and other quality signals.
Composite score
Volatility
Volatility measures how much a stock price moves up and down over time. Higher volatility can create opportunity, but it can also reduce forecast confidence because the range of possible outcomes is wider.
Risk measure
Market Regime
Market regime describes the broader environment, such as risk-on, risk-off, high-rate, low-rate, bullish, bearish, or neutral conditions. Regime context helps explain whether the market environment supports or conflicts with a stock-specific forecast.
Market context